Cotton Gin Tour

Folks, if you missed T.S. Designs' tour of the Rolling Hills Cotton Gin yesterday, you really blew it! I can't imagine a more informative and productive way to spend a Saturday! Fortunately, T.S. Designs is likely to schedule another one, so if you have an interest, let Eric or Tom know, so that they are made aware. Contact information is: eric@tsdesigns.com or tom@tsdesigns.com.

Free CFLs from Duke Energy

Duke Energy is offering its customers 15 free compact florescent light bulbs. (Yes, you must be a Duke customer.) Call Duke Energy at 1-800-943-7585, press option 1, and follow the prompts. You will be asked to supply your account number or your SSN. Based on my wife's experience, the process takes less than a minute. I don't know how long the offer is in effect.

Local Energy in the Context of Community Design

On Saturday, November 13, Guilford Energy Resources will be offering the last presentation in its “Local Energy” series. The title: “Energy Efficiency in Urban Living and Working.” The presenter: Michiel VanderSommen.

Cities and their residents are looking for ways to cut energy costs while at the same time improving livability. Michiel will talk about ways to achieve this double objective. He will “connect the dots” across multiple sub-topics such as overall city layout, non-auto transportation orientations, mixed-use building, and self-sufficient sub-communities. The concept of “district energy” will be featured, showing how this approach to local energy makes sense (and cents) in a well-planned city. And because proper city planning involves the development of self-sufficient sub-communities, the very concept of community is emphasized and the development of a sense of community is promoted. Finally, it will become clear how all of this promotes job-creation, an important by-product for a struggling economy. In short, we can at the same time lower costs, save energy, improve livability, build a sense of community, and increase employment. Be aware that this requires a willingness to think differently about cities and their neighborhoods. But, as Albert Einstein once said; “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used to create them”.

Michiel VanderSommen brings to his analysis a broad educational and practical background. He is a mechanical engineer, has studied architecture, was educated in Europe, and has lived and worked and studied in several modern cities. This broad background has prepared him for this long overdue presentation, one which promises to fill the gaps within and across many of the presentations we have offered in the past.

What: Energy Efficiency in Urban Living and Working
When: Saturday, November 13, 2010, 10:00 AM
Where: Kathleen Clay Edwards Family Branch Library, 1420 Price Park Rd., Greensboro
Cost: Free

Assault on Wind and Solar

In the prior post, I re-published an article I had presented 5 years ago, on research that had been carried out by Robert Hirsch and his associates. That research raised serious questions about the future availability of oil at the production rates necessary for the continuation of society as we know it. His report then attempted an analysis of the most promising mitigation strategies for avoiding the otherwise dire consequences. Hirsch and these same associates have very recently published a book entitled The Impending World Energy Mess. Some of the content of the book represents an update to the work done 5 years ago. Most of its content is, in one way or another, focused on the availability of liquid fuels going forward. Indeed, the book can be taken as both an introduction to, and summary of, the issue of "peak oil." But there is also a section on electrical energy and electricity generation options. This section is nothing short of an attack on the notion that wind- and solar-generated electricity can address our need for an economically viable substitute for conventional -- that is, fossil-fuel based, hydro, and nuclear -- electric power generation. The attack is so thoroughgoing that the pro-wind and pro-solar communities will, I think, be compelled to respond to this challenge. There are several on-line forums in which this discussion is likely to take place. One of them is the Energy Bulletin, and I am suggesting that those who have an interest in this topic might want to visit the site on a fairly regular basis. The site can be found at: http://www.energybulletin.net/.

The Hirsch Report -- Five Years Later

Below is a reprint of a post I made to another blog almost exactly 5 years ago. It is a summary of a presentation delivered by Robert Hirsch, at Duke University, in 2005. I am posting it again because Dr. Hirsch has just now published a book that lays out what has happened since and what he believes is now prudent. The book is titled "The Impending World Energy Mess." I will be commenting on this book in the near future.

Peak Oil: Our Gift to our Children
(originally posted on September 16, 2005)

It is with considerable reluctance that I publish this post. I risk being categorized as an “alarmist,” which often costs readership. But it would be negligent on my part not to post, so here goes.

I have been studying the “peak oil” controversy for approximately a year. As I progressed through the published work of authors whose credentials were beyond reproach, I became increasingly uneasy about our energy future. But until now, I continued to view peak oil as a controversy, not an inevitability. I have come to see that I can no longer “wait for things to play out.”

The tipping point for me was a presentation made at Duke University on Tuesday (9/13/05) by Dr. Robert Hirsch, a scientist who has served at very high levels in multiple energy fields—oil and gas, nuclear, renewables. There was no hesitation on Dr. Hirsch’s part regarding what we face. Unless we’re extremely lucky, and peak oil is 20 or more years down the pike, we are going to experience a crash. What Dr. Hirsch had discovered—in the course of completing a research contract for the Department of Energy—is that there are no feasible approaches to avoiding huge liquid fuel shortfalls unless a mitigation strategy is undertaken, as a crash program, at least 20 years prior to the oil production peak. And most reputable predictors are saying that the peak will come well before 20 years from now. And the fact is, we have NOT, to date, undertaken any of the mitigation strategies Hirsch discovered to be feasible, so we’re in all likelihood headed for huge trouble, worldwide. (Most of Hirsch’s audience consisted of college students; he remarked at the beginning of his lecture that his young audience was going to leave the presentation very unhappy. What an understatement.)

What Hirsch did is this. He carefully researched the technological options that could be brought on-line in the near future, limiting himself to those that could address the sheer magnitude of the problem of massive worldwide petroleum production shortfalls. The results of this “feasibility” study were, to put it charitably, sobering. Most of the feasible options fall within the domain of the energy companies themselves—primarily oil and gas companies—and little is available for the individual, society, or (non-dictatorial) governments to do. For example, the most feasible application of efficiency, at the level where it is likely to have any noticeable effect, is to automobiles and light trucks. The transition to diesels and hybrids—the best that Hirsch found we could do, given the time constraints—yields a per day savings of 2-3 million barrels (this is 15 years after initiating the conversion program), which is a mere 10% of what his total mitigation strategy can yield (25 million barrels per day, after 15 years). All of the other techniques have to do with enhancements to the production of existing oil or the production of oil substitutes. So if every one of us demanded of automakers that nothing but diesel and hybrid cars and light trucks be produced, and if the automakers responded via a crash program to produce only those, then we would still have made but a small contribution to the solution. And no other consumer-initiated approach was considered to be feasible (again, from the perspective of what it will take to truly meet the challenge). I should at least mention what the remaining feasible techniques are, in Hirsch’s view. The technique that can provide the most mitigation is the recovery and processing of "heavy oil" (heavy oil, oil sands, tar sands). The next most effective is the production of liquid fuels from coal. The third is enhanced oil recovery (the recovery of known quantities of oil that resist being produced by conventional methods). Fourth—and tied with vehicle efficiency for extent of contribution—is Gas-To-Liquid technology (for example, converting natural gas to a liquid fuel similar to gasoline). This is not the place to discuss these technologies in detail. Needless to say, the organizations most likely and most able to pursue these approaches are the existing energy companies. Please note that the overall mitigation strategy uses two general approaches: the reduction of demand through vehicle efficiency, and the increase in supply through additional oil recovery and the production of oil substitutes. And, to repeat, only one of these approaches is under anything close to direct citizen control—namely, expressed demand for diesels and hybrids.

Don’t get me wrong. This is no excuse for individuals to do nothing. But it does serve to indicate the limited extent to which we ordinary folks are in charge of our energy future. Later I will suggest one other direction that we in North Carolina can take to help mitigate the severity of what is likely to come. And of course we should be putting pressure on elected officials (and on the energy companies, to the extent that we can) to at least acknowledge the problem. With an open and vigorous public debate, other options might emerge and existing options might get implemented. But I must confess, I find it hard to be optimistic.

What’s new in Hirsch’s treatment, besides the feasibility analysis itself, is the attempt to plot the effects of a feasible mitigation strategy over time, under three scenarios. The first scenario assumes that we will conduct “business as usual” until the production peak occurs. At that point, we will initiate a crash program to implement the mitigation strategy described earlier. The second scenario assumes that, even though we cannot predict exactly when oil production will peak, we begin before the peak in fact occurs. The specific timing assumption for scenario two is 10 years in advance (again, we cannot plan to start ten years in advance; rather, we begin at some point and it just turns out that the peak occurred 10 years later). Scenario three assumes that we get started 20 years before the peak occurs.

Before looking at the results, it is important to understand some of the general assumptions that went into the scenarios. For all three, it is assumed that when the decision to implement is made, it truly is a crash program and massive resources are thrown at the implementation effort. Second, there is the assumption that “normal” petroleum demand increases will follow the historical trend: roughly 2% per year. Third, there is the critically important assumption that when the peak occurs, the downward slide will also be approximately 2% per year. This assumption reflects the actual numbers that are seen for the "US lower-48" oil production curve of the second half of the last century: when the peak occurred in the early ‘70s, the subsequent decline, when smoothed over time, averaged approximately 2% per year.

Now for the results. I will pretty much let the graphics do the talking. First, a bit of preparation. Hirsch represents the mitigation strategy results for each scenario with a wedge. The wedge-shape is used because he assumes that each component of the strategy will have to ramp up over time—the effort is so enormous that no piece of the strategy could be put into place all at once. Second, each mitigation wedge is really a combination of 5 smaller wedges, one for each of the techniques (efficiency, Heavy Oil, etc.). Third, each wedge represents a combination of decreased demand (efficiency) and increased supply (all of the others). Okay, what do we see?

The first graphic—a table—displays a sampling of peak oil predictions by well-known and/or well-respected estimators. This is important data, because it gives us a clue as to which scenario is likely to actually play out. The next graphic shows a sample mitigation wedge and its mini-wedge components. The next three graphs illustrate the results under the three scenarios.

Here's the table showing the predictions by various authorities of the oil production peak:

Half of the predictions yield dates that fall within the next 5 years; very few project the peak as being as much as 20 years out.

The following chart shows the relative contributions of each of the five feasible mitigation techniques:

Of the five feasible techniques, vehicle efficiency produces the smallest benefit (tied with Gas-To-Liquid).

The following charts illustrate three scenarios for peak oil mitigation. The first shows the supply shortfall if we wait until the peak occurs before we undertake a crash mitigation effort. The second shows the results of undertaking a crash program of mitigation 10 years prior to the peak. The third shows the results of undertaking a crash mitigation program 20 years prior to the peak. Only in the third case do we avoid the supply shortfall altogether.

Note the consequences: 20 years after the peak, even with mitigation efforts, a 30 million barrel-per-day shortfall is anticipated.

Mitigation has been undertaken 10 years before the peak occurs. The "delayed oil" arrow shows that the peak has effectively been delayed by roughly a decade. There is still a shortfall, but it occurs later and is smaller in size.

When mitigation is undertaken 20 years prior to the peak, there is no apparent shortfall.

This is chilling stuff. It gets worse. There are also alternative estimates of the rate of decline once the worldwide production peak is reached. These estimate range from 2% to 8%. Remember that Hirsch is assuming 2%. He admitted, in his presentation at Duke, that the estimate that worries him the most is the 8% number. Not only is it huge, but one of the estimators for that number is the company Schlumberger. Schlumberger is the leading oilfield services company in the world. This company supplies services everywhere, to all major producers. So this company knows as much (or more) about what is going on in the world of oil production as anyone does—and the company has been doing its thing for a very long time. Imagine what the three final graphics (above) would look like if the decline rate were 8%!

I asked Dr. Hirsch how you convince people to get started with mitigation efforts. He said that it takes probably three exposures to a presentation like his before anything concrete is even likely to be considered. The first time a person hears or sees this, the response is shock. The second exposure results in denial and "leaving the field" (as the psychologists like to say). The third exposure begins to penetrate in a more productive way, with people trying finally to get their heads around the enormity of it, trying to think concretely and realistically about what to do. Now imagine the likelihood that you will convince anyone you know to sit through a Hirsch presentation three times.

Local PV Training

For those interested in pursuing local training in PV technology, be aware that GTCC now offers a Certificate Program in Photovoltaic Systems Technology. The program is offered at the Greensboro campus, on East Wendover Avenue. For more information, contact Adrian Wright, at 336-334-4822, extension 4428.

Thanks to Bill Barker for bringing this to my attention.

Community Energy Pioneers

Guilford Energy Resources is offering the fifth in a series of presentations on local energy this coming Saturday, September 11, at 9:30 AM.

This program highlights local people who have played trailblazing roles in the inevitable evolution from unsustainable to sustainable sources of energy. These are people who didn't wait around for governments or non-profits or (finally) utilities to provide incentives. They simply went out and did it.

Our first presenter is Kirby Wilkins, a Reidsville musician and repairer of guitars who, many years ago, performed the analysis that even today seems to elude large portions of the general public – that ultimately we have to “go solar.” His presentation is titled “Ten Years Off the Grid,” and if you infer from this that Mr. Wilkins has produced all of his own electric power for a decade, your inference is absolutely correct. What he will show you – in a truly convincing way – is that energy sustainability, at the residential level, is practical and available to those with limited financial resources. And that's just the start: rainwater capture, composting, organic gardening, tankless water heating, wind power production, photovoltaic power production – the list goes on and on. And of course his guitar repair business is “off the grid” as well.

The second presentation will feature T.S. Designs, a T-Shirt manufacturer located in Burlington. Once again there is almost no way to describe what these people have done over the past decade or so. Water re-cycling, composting (for soil improvement, for space heating, for liquids heating), photovoltaics, wind power, biodiesel, organic gardening, sustainable manufacturing – you get the picture. Not surprisingly, T.S. Designs is the winner of “sustainable business” awards and is recognized throughout the region as one of the most forward-thinking operations on the planet.

True to the title of the program, the focus will be on energy. But you won't have any trouble getting these folks to talk about the other neat things they do. This promises to be nothing less than a blast!

What: Community Energy Pioneers
When: Saturday, September 11, 2010, 9:30 AM
Where: Kathleen Clay Edwards Family Branch Library, 1420 Price Park Rd., Greensboro
Cost: Free

Where does all that energy go?

Ever wonder where energy goes, in terms of personal housing and transportation? Here are some rough estimates. The first graph includes residential uses but not personal transportation. The second graph adds personal transportation, in terms of both automobile and air. Energy quantities are shown in millions of BTUs per household per year. If you prefer to think in terms of kilowatt hours, the conversion is: 1 kWh = 3414 BTU.

Graphs are courtesy of Stuart Staniford, as published in the Energy Bulletin, August 11, 2010.

Nuclear Splits?

The use of nuclear fission to generate electricity has always been problematic. For years, however, the most often-voiced concerns revolved around safety. But gradually, over time, the issue of economics has increasingly been raised. And now a true mind-blower: a recent study out of Duke University suggests that, in North Carolina, nuclear power is more costly than electricity produced via photovoltaics!!

There are actually two studies of importance here. The first, claiming the economic advantage of PV over nuclear, is entitled Solar and Nuclear Costs -- The Historic Crossover and can be found here. But the authors' arguments really build, almost entirely, on a prior study entitled The Economics of Nuclear Reactors: Renaissance or Relapse? That second -- but more fundamental -- study can be found here.

This is extremely important material, and it constitutes a potential game-changer.

Thanks to Walter Hill for bringing this to my attention!

The Big Switch?

Can we maintain a high-energy civilization simply by switching energy sources, from fossil fuels to renewables? These folks don't think so. It's worth a look.

http://www.theoildrum.com/pdf/theoildrum_6641.pdf

http://www.theoildrum.com/pdf/theoildrum_6704.pdf

http://www.theoildrum.com/pdf/theoildrum_6758.pdf

Ontario Small Generator Program

Ontario (Canada) has been offering an attractive program to encourage folks to enter the electric power generation business. What is attractive about it is the rate per kWh being paid to these small generators. If your proposed system is 10 kW or less, you can earn 80.2 cents/kWh. The program is so popular that Ontario has dropped the rate to 58.8 cents/kWh for ground-mounted systems. A brochure describing the program, called microFIT, can be found here.

The approach being used in Ontario is called a "feed-in tariff" and it has a significant advantage over the tax credit approach used in NC (and by the federal government). In North Carolina, if you have only a moderate income, you might never pay enough in state and federal taxes to ever benefit fully, or indeed at all, from the available tax credits. What this means is that the people who most need financial assistance in implementing a renewable energy project are penalized. The financially well-off get the financial benefits; the poor get nothing. With a feed-in tariff, you are paid for power output, regardless of your economic status. Ontario is not the only subscriber to the feed-in tariff approach. Germany, probably the most successful promoter of solar power, also uses the feed-in tariff approach.

In fairness, it must be admitted that a "mini-tariff" is available in NC. The NC GreenPower program does pay an elevated price -- that is, more than the utilities -- for power produced by renewable energy generators. But the price differential is nothing compared to that provided by Ontario or Germany, so folks implementing renewable energy projects here are forced to rely on tax credits in order to see anything like a reasonable payback period.

The tax credit approach is better than nothing. It remains far from optimal.

Community Sustainability Council Posts Draft of Sustainability Action Plan

The Community Sustainability Council (CSC) functions to advise the Greensboro City Council on matters relating to sustainability. The CSC has posted a draft of its proposed Sustainability Action Plan, and I urge you to read it and provide appropriate feedback. The CSC itself can be found here, and the draft of its proposal can be found here.

Sustainable Greensboro to Offer Program on Solar for Businesses

Power Your Business With The Sun

Businesses, nonprofits, and investors will learn about how solar applications can:
--Save on hot water and heating costs
--Be an investment
--Become more affordable with tax credits and proven financing

Panelists:
--Travis Simpson, CEO, Extend Energy
--Dan Gretsch, Solar Hot
--Tracy M. Valentine, CPA, MBA, Davenport, Marvin, Joyce & Co, LLP
--Iain MacSween
Moderator: Madeline Fazzalari, LEED AP, Progress Solar Solutions, LLC

Where:
Greensboro Chamber of Commerce
342 N. Elm Street
Greensboro, NC 27401

When:
June 3, 2010
8:30 am

Admission:
Free

Sponsored by:
--Sustainable Greensboro
--The Greensboro Partnership

For more information:
Stephanie Ashton
336-387-8316

To register for this free event, go to:
Greensboro Chamber of Commerce

Renewables -- A Long Way to Go

Sanity Check: How much energy are we really getting out of renewable sources? Note that the largest renewable contributors are biomass and hydro.

This chart is based on EIA data from 2001.

Biofuels Program presentations available

Presentations related to the May 4 biofuels program are now available on our website! Go to GER, then choose the Documents and Downloads option, then scroll down to Biofuels Program Materials.

This just in from Sustainable Greensboro....

Energy Efficiency in the Workplace, May 3.

Sustainable Greensboro and the Greensboro Partnership Present... Workshop: Reducing Your Company’s Energy Consumption Panelists: Dr. Harmohindar Singh, Professor Department of Civil, Architectural, Agricultural and Environmental Engineering and Director of the Center for Energy Research and Technology at NC A&T State Peter Rojeski, Jr., Ph.D., P.E., Professor of Architectural Engineering at NC A&T Wendy Cockerham, LEED AP and Director of Sustainable Construction for WeaverCooke Construction, LLC Tracy Valentine, CPA, for Davenport, Marvin, Joyce & Co., LLP When: May 3, 2010, 8:30 AM - 10:00 AM Where: Greensboro Chamber of Commerce, 342 North Elm Street, Greensboro, NC For more information and to register here or call 336.887.8316. (Note: if you attempt to register on-line and get a warning message, click on "Events.")

Interested in the Chevy Volt?

The Chevy Volt is an electric car with a "range extender" -- an on-board gasoline engine to charge the battery (if needed). Here's Plug In America testing a prototype: ZAP!

Rake leaves? No, Just pick up one

Nissan has a neat website. It's where the company describes its new electric car, the Leaf. Check it out -----> Nissan Leaf

Reminder! Two Upcoming Presentations

Tuesday, May 4, 4:00 PM

Our February 13 event was cancelled due to inclement weather. It has been rescheduled for Tuesday, May 4, so mark your calendars:

"Biofuels as a Business: The Prospect for Biofuels Production in the Piedmont." There will be three presenters. Dr. Ghasem Shahbazi, Director of Bioengineering at NC A&T State University, will discuss the types of biofuels that are practical from a real-world production perspective. Derek Blackburn, also at A&T, will then present an overview of the biorefineries currently operating in North Carolina. This will be followed by a talk by Gary Sink, President of Red Birch Energy. Red Birch operates a commercial-scale biodiesel refinery in Bassett, VA. The business model employed by Red Birch is impressive, so impressive in fact that the company has been invited twice to Washington to present its model. Among other things, Red Birch intends to offer a franchising option, for people who want to get into the biodiesel production business but who wish to take advantage of the expertise and experience already amassed by Red Birch personnel.

What: Biofuels as a Business: Prospects for Biofuels Production in the Piedmont
When: Tuesday, May 4, 2010; 4:00 - 6:30 PM
Where: Kathleen Clay Edwards Library auditorium, 1420 Price Park Rd., Greensboro, NC

Saturday, May 8, 10:00 AM

"The Net-Zero Energy Residence." Presenter: Michiel VanderSommen. From a housing perspective, the net-zero energy residence represents the ultimate in energy localization: local energy sources, local energy production (and conservation), local energy consumption. By definition, a net-zero energy residence produces at least as much energy as it consumes. The concept can be extended to provide energy support for personal transportation, by expanding the energy production capabilities of the residence (or residential community) to provide battery-charging for personal vehicles. Michiel will examine various techniques for meeting the net-zero energy objective, including passive solar design, the use of orientation, construction, and landscaping techniques for maximizing energy efficiency, and the application of energy production technologies that are appropriate for residences and residential communities.

What: The Net-Zero Energy Residence
When: Saturday, May 8, 2010; 10 AM - 12 Noon
Where: Kathleen Clay Edwards Library auditorium, 1420 Price Park Rd., Greensboro, NC

The Future of Biofuels?

Two promising feedstocks for biofuels production are cellulosic material and algae. To download a white paper that discusses the prospects of employing these feedstocks, entitled "Transitioning from 1st Generation to Avanced Biofuels," visit: http://www.myeflorida.com/mk/get/CE_BIOFUELS_WP

Earth Day Celebration, from Sustainable Greensboro

2nd Annual Earth Day at Center City Park

Sustainable Greensboro is pleased to announce that the Second Annual Earth Day at Center City Park will take place from 4:30- 7:30pm on April 22. The event, featuring music, art, kids' activities, local food and crafts, and a Green Drinks beer garden brings the celebration of the 40th Anniversary of Earth Day to the heart of Downtown Greensboro.

The event is organized with help from the following organizations: center City Park, Urban Harvest, Green Hill Cultural Center/ArtQuest, Elsewhere Artist Collaborative, and Bicycling in Greensboro (BIG).

The Love Language, a Merge Records recording artist from Chapel Hill, has been confirmed as the music headliner for the event. Check their performances out on YouTube. Opening up the celebration will be the soaring voices of the NC A&T State University Choir!

Energy, Transportation, and Air Quality

On May 26, 2010, NC Mobile Care will sponsor a one-day conference on alternative fuel and transportation options entitled Mobilizing NC: Where Air Quality, Energy & Transportation Meet. Visit the organization's website for more information and/or to register for the event: http://www.ncmobilecare.org/

FLS Documents Now Available

The FLS presentation of March 13 (2010) is now available on the Guilford Energy Resources website. Phil Strouth also made available a solar factsheet, and that too is available for downloading. Go to the "Documents and Downloads" section of the website to gain access to either or both of these documents.

Solar Training Opportunities

For those folks interested in finding a program that will provide career training in photovoltaics and/or solar domestic hot water, the April/May 2010 issue (#136) of Home Power Magazine offers a state-by-state guide to institutions providing training programs. If interested, visit the HPM website at http://homepower.com/home/.

Biofuels Event Rescheduled

Biofuels as a Business: Prospects for Biofuels Production in the Piedmont, originally scheduled for February 13 and cancelled due to inclement weather, has been rescheduled to Tuesday, May 4, 4:00 - 6:30 PM, at the Kathleen Clay Edwards Family Branch Library in Greensboro.

This set of presentations targets those people interested in investigating or pursuing a biofuels business in the Piedmont Triad region of North Carolina.

What: Biofuels as a Business: Prospects for Biofuels Production in the Piedmont
When: Tuesday, May 4, 2010; 4:00 - 6:30 PM
Where: Kathleen Clay Edwards Library auditorium, 1420 Price Park Rd., Greensboro, NC

Solar Hot Water -- Worldwide

If you're not familiar with the Earth Policy Institute and its publications, this will serve as a useful introduction. The following is a report on the surge in solar hot water installations worldwide.

ON ROOFTOPS WORLDWIDE, A SOLAR WATER HEATING REVOLUTION
By Lester R. Brown
Earth Policy Release Book Byte March 9, 2010
www.earthpolicy.org/index.php?/book_bytes/2010/pb4ch05_ss3a

The harnessing of solar energy is expanding on every front as concerns about climate change and energy security escalate, as government incentives for harnessing solar energy expand, and as these costs decline while those of fossil fuels rise. One solar technology that is really beginning to take off is the use of solar thermal collectors to convert sunlight into heat that can be used to warm both water and space.

China, for example, is now home to 27 million rooftop solar water heaters. With nearly 4,000 Chinese companies manufacturing these devices, this relatively simple low-cost technology has leapfrogged into villages that do not yet have electricity. For as little as $200, villagers can have a rooftop solar collector installed and take their first hot shower. This technology is sweeping China like wildfire, already approaching market saturation in some communities. Beijing plans to boost the current 114 million square meters of rooftop solar collectors for heating water to 300 million by 2020.

The energy harnessed by these installations in China is equal to the electricity generated by 49 coal-fired power plants. Other developing countries such as India and Brazil may also soon see millions of households turning to this inexpensive water heating technology. This leapfrogging into rural areas without an electricity grid is similar to the way cell phones bypassed the traditional fixed-line grid, providing services to millions of people who would still be on waiting lists if they had relied on traditional phone lines. Once the initial installment cost of rooftop solar water heaters is paid, the hot water is essentially free.

In Europe, where energy costs are relatively high, rooftop solar water heaters are also spreading fast. In Austria, 15 percent of all households now rely on them for hot water. And, as in China, in some Austrian villages nearly all homes have rooftop collectors. Germany is also forging ahead. Janet Sawin of the Worldwatch Institute notes that some 2 million Germans are now living in homes where water and space are both heated by rooftop solar systems.

Inspired by the rapid adoption of rooftop water and space heaters in Europe in recent years, the European Solar Thermal Industry Federation (ESTIF) has established an ambitious goal of 500 million square meters, or 1 square meter of rooftop collector for every European by 2020—a goal slightly greater than the 0.93 square meters per person found today in Cyprus, the world leader. Most installations are projected to be Solar-Combi systems that are engineered to heat both water and space.

Europe’s solar collectors are concentrated in Germany, Austria, and Greece, with France and Spain also beginning to mobilize. Spain’s initiative was boosted by a March 2006 mandate requiring installation of collectors on all new or renovated buildings. Portugal followed quickly with its own mandate. ESTIF estimates that the European Union has a long-term potential of developing 1,200 thermal gigawatts of solar water and space heating, which means that the sun could meet most of Europe’s low-temperature heating needs.

The U.S. rooftop solar water heating industry has historically concentrated on a niche market—selling and marketing 10 million square meters of solar water heaters for swimming pools between 1995 and 2005. Given this base, however, the industry was poised to mass-market residential solar water and space heating systems when federal tax credits were introduced in 2006. Led by Hawaii, California, and Florida, U.S. installation of these systems tripled in 2006 and has continued at a rapid pace since then.

We now have the data to make some global projections. With China setting a goal of 300 million square meters of solar water heating capacity by 2020, and ESTIF’s goal of 500 million square meters for Europe by 2020, a U.S. installation of 300 million square meters by 2020 is certainly within reach given the recently adopted tax incentives. Japan, which now has 7 million square meters of rooftop solar collectors heating water but which imports virtually all its fossil fuels, could easily reach 80 million square meters by 2020.

If China and the European Union achieve their goals and Japan and the United States reach the projected adoptions, they will have a combined total of 1,180 million square meters of water and space heating capacity by 2020. With appropriate assumptions for developing countries other than China, the global total in 2020 could exceed 1.5 billion square meters. This would give the world a solar thermal capacity by 2020 of 1,100 thermal gigawatts, the equivalent of 690 coal-fired power plants. This would account for more than half of the Earth Policy Institute’s renewable energy heating goal for 2020, part of a massive effort to stabilize our rapidly changing climate by slashing global net carbon emissions 80 percent within the next decade. (For more information, see Chapters 4 and 5 of Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, on-line for free downloading at www.earthpolicy.org/index.php?/books/pb4.)

The huge projected expansion in solar water and space heating in industrial countries could close some existing coal-fired power plants and reduce natural gas use, as solar water heaters replace electric and gas water heaters. In countries such as China and India, however, solar water heaters will simply reduce the need for new coal-fired power plants.

Solar water and space heaters in Europe and China have a strong economic appeal. On average, in industrial countries these systems pay for themselves from electricity savings in fewer than 10 years. They are also responsive to energy security and climate change concerns.

With the cost of rooftop heating systems declining, particularly in China, many other countries will likely join Israel, Spain, and Portugal in mandating that all new buildings incorporate rooftop solar water heaters. No longer a passing fad, these rooftop appliances are fast entering the mainstream.

# # #

Adapted from Chapter 5, “Stabilizing Climate: Shifting to Renewable Energy,” in Lester R. Brown, Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2009), available on-line at www.earthpolicy.org/index.php?/books/pb4

Additional data and information sources at www.earthpolicy.org

Varieties of Solar Energy and Use

The third in a series of presentations on local energy, organized by Guilford Solar/Guilford Energy Resources, will be held on Saturday, Mar. 13, at the Kathleen Clay Edwards Library. This event will focus on the uses of solar energy in a "local energy" context. First, Phil Strouth, of FLS Energy, will discuss the uses of solar energy in the production of domestic hot water and electricity. Next, Otto Afanador, a long-time member of Guilford Solar, will discuss the uses of solar energy for space heating and cooling. The program will begin earlier than usual, at 9:30 AM. Date/time/location details:

What: Varieties of Solar Energy and Use
When: Saturday, March 13, 2010; 9:30 AM – 12 Noon
Where: Kathleen Clay Edwards Library auditorium, 1420 Price Park Rd., Greensboro, NC

Bloom Energy Fuel Cell -- Worth Watching

Bloom Energy has been getting some good press lately. The company has produced a type of solid oxide fuel cell that includes an inexpensive electrolyte, thus avoiding expensive precious metals, corrosive acids, and molten materials. A bread-box sized module is said to be able to power a typical residence. Two questions remain: cost and reliability. Some big-name organizations are testing the product. Bloom claims the product will be affordable. Visit Bloom Energy at http://www.bloomenergy.com/products/solid-oxide-fuel-cell/. Stay tuned! Below, read a brief description of solid oxide fuel cells.

Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (from EERE Fuel Cell Technologies Program):

Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) use a hard, non-porous ceramic compound as the electrolyte. Because the electrolyte is a solid, the cells do not have to be constructed in the plate-like configuration typical of other fuel cell types. SOFCs are expected to be around 50%–60% efficient at converting fuel to electricity. In applications designed to capture and utilize the system's waste heat (co-generation), overall fuel use efficiencies could top 80%–85%.

Solid oxide fuel cells operate at very high temperatures—around 1,000°C (1,830°F). High-temperature operation removes the need for precious-metal catalyst, thereby reducing cost. It also allows SOFCs to reform fuels internally, which enables the use of a variety of fuels and reduces the cost associated with adding a reformer to the system.

SOFCs are also the most sulfur-resistant fuel cell type; they can tolerate several orders of magnitude more of sulfur than other cell types. In addition, they are not poisoned by carbon monoxide (CO), which can even be used as fuel. This property allows SOFCs to use gases made from coal.

High-temperature operation has disadvantages. It results in a slow startup and requires significant thermal shielding to retain heat and protect personnel, which may be acceptable for utility applications but not for transportation and small portable applications. The high operating temperatures also place stringent durability requirements on materials. The development of low-cost materials with high durability at cell operating temperatures is the key technical challenge facing this technology.

Scientists are currently exploring the potential for developing lower-temperature SOFCs operating at or below 800°C that have fewer durability problems and cost less. Lower-temperature SOFCs produce less electrical power, however, and stack materials that will function in this lower temperature range have not been identified.

Biofuels News

As I write, the National Ethanol Conference is being held in Orlando, Florida. Dr. Ghasem Shahbazi, Director of Bioengineering at NC A&T State University, has indicated that interesting information is coming out of that conference. Below is the top story posted by the Renewable Fuels Association, a trade association for the ethanol industry. To see related stories, you can go to the organization's website:

http://alquemie.smartbrief.com/alquemie/servlet/encodeServlet?issueid=55E00924-8816-41FF-8079-5029E9828980&lmid=archives



RFA: Industry must fight for higher ethanol blends, tax-credit extension. The U.S. ethanol sector is healthy, but it has to hurdle difficult obstacles this year, including successfully petitioning to boost the ethanol blend limit to 15% and the Dec. 31 expiration of federal tax subsidies, according to Bob Dinneen, president of the Renewable Fuels Association. In the keynote address to open the National Ethanol Conference, Dinneen called on industry members to work harder to "tear down the blend wall" and to secure an extension of ethanol tax incentives. ICIS News (U.K.) (2/16)



WEBINAR – Biofuels: The Promise of the Next Generations. The second wave of biofuels such as cellulosic ethanol, algae and others bypass the food vs. fuel controversy and are on the cusp of commercialization. This on-demand webinar will review the latest developments in the advanced biofuel space with leading companies and R&D institutions. Register now!

Saturday event cancelled

The presentation scheduled for Saturday, Feb. 13, at 9:30 AM, has been cancelled due to icy driving conditions. Guilford Solar/Guilford Energy Resources will attempt to re-schedule the event. Stay tuned!

Prospects for Biofuels Production in the Piedmont

This Saturday, February 13, from 9:30 AM - Noon, the second in a series of presentations on local energy will be hosted by Guilford Energy Resources. First, Dr. Ghasem Shahbazi, Director of Bioengineering at NC A&T State University, will provide an introduction to the variety of available biofuels. Then Derek Blackburn, also of A&T, will provide an overview of the existing biodiesel and ethanol plants in North Carolina. The featured biofuels business will be Red Birch Energy, which operates an industrial-scale biodiesel refinery in Bassett, VA. Among other things, Red Birch -- twice invited to Washington to present its business model -- will outline its future franchise option, which should be of interest to those looking into biofuels business opportunities. Finally, Burlington Biodiesel, which has operated a biodiesel production co-op for many years, will describe its current operations and make the case for the continuing existence of biodiesel co-ops in general.

What: Prospects for Biofuels Production in the Piedmont
When: Saturday, February 13, 2010; 9:30 AM - Noon
Where: Kathleen Clay Edwards Library auditorium, 1420 Price Park Rd., Greensboro, NC

Temporary website for Guilford Energy Resources

Guilford Energy Resources, formerly known as Guilford Solar, is in the process of constructing a permanent website. Southern Evergreen has generously donated a temporary website, to be used until the permanent site goes live. To access the temporary site, go to website or select the Guilford Energy Resources link under "Links."